Samvat 2082: Poised for Renewal?
Over the past year, Indian equities have undergone a meaningful phase of consolidation—digesting earlier gains and recalibrating valuations. This period of stability, rather than stagnation, now provides a firmer base for the next leg of growth.
At Adezi Ventures, we believe the coming Samvat could mark a constructive inflection driven by improving macro stability, stronger earnings visibility, and a more balanced global risk environment.
A stabilising dollar, a potential trade deal, and the return of foreign inflows as INR volatility subsides could act as important catalysts. With the valuation gap between India, China, and other emerging markets having largely closed, we see merit in maintaining a strategic overweight to Indian equities, while staying underexposed to richly valued U.S. markets.
Our Core Themes and Portfolio Picks for Samvat 2082
1. Formalisation in Dairy — Value Migration to Organised Players
The recent GST cuts on dairy products mark a quiet but powerful structural trigger. Over time, they are likely to accelerate volume migration from unorganised to organised players, and improve margin profiles as compliance costs fall and branded distribution widens.
Within this space, we favour Parag Milk Foods and Heritage Foods, both of which combine strong brands, improving product mix, and geographic expansion headroom.
- Parag Milk Foods has steadily increased the share of value-added products (cheese, whey, flavoured milk) in its portfolio, driving higher realisations and stickier consumer behaviour.
- Heritage Foods continues to benefit from its southern franchise and is now expanding its value-added range, which should support margin recovery and stronger ROE over the medium term.
The overall theme fits into our broader belief that India’s consumption formalisation story is far from complete, and GST benefits will unfold over several quarters.
2. Telecom — From Leverage to Leadership
The Indian telecom sector continues to display improving fundamentals after years of consolidation and capital intensity. The next phase, in our view, will be defined by ROCE expansion, operating leverage, and cash generation.
Bharti Airtel remains our preferred pure-play exposure in this space.
We expect earnings to compound meaningfully as:
- Tariffs normalise further, driving ARPU-led growth.
- 5G rollouts plateau, leading to lower incremental capex.
- Emerging verticals—data centers, cloud services, and digital platforms—begin contributing visibly.
Airtel’s disciplined execution, spectrum depth, and prudent capital allocation differentiate it as a long-term compounder, rather than a cyclical recovery play.
3. Capital Market Companies — Building the Financial Infrastructure of India
Few sectors capture India’s structural transformation as clearly as capital markets.
Participation is broadening, technology adoption is reshaping delivery, and financial savings are shifting decisively toward equities.
We believe FY26 could mark a rebound year for earnings across the ecosystem, as volatility subsides and activity revives.
Our key exposures—Angel One, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, Motilal Oswal, and IIFL Capital—represent diverse yet complementary models:
- Angel One remains a benchmark for tech-led scalability, customer acquisition efficiency, and deep ecosystem stickiness.
- ABSL AMC combines steady-state profitability with a renewed focus on passive and alternate strategies.
- Motilal Oswal continues to compound across multiple verticals—broking, AMC, housing finance—under a well-capitalised and aligned ownership.
- IIFL Capital offers differentiated exposure to the high-growth wealth management opportunity, where formalisation and rising HNI participation can create enduring franchise value.
In our view, this is a high-quality cyclical—one that benefits from both market appreciation and growing participation.
4. Yield & Infrastructure — REITs and InvITs Reasserting Relevance
In an environment of moderating rates and stable inflation, yield assets are again finding institutional attention.
India’s commercial real estate is seeing sustained absorption led by GCC expansion, while infrastructure assets continue to offer attractive inflation-protected yields.
We remain constructive on:
- Brookfield India REIT, which has a diversified, well-located Grade A portfolio and benefits from steady rental escalations and rising occupancy.
- IndiGrid InvIT and PG InvIT, both of which represent strong power transmission platforms offering predictable, long-term cash flows and a sustainable dividend profile.
With global investors increasingly searching for real, predictable yields, we believe REITs and InvITs will continue to evolve as credible long-duration instruments in Indian portfolios.
5. Financials — Strength Beneath the Surface
Despite a challenging macro backdrop, Indian lenders have managed to deliver steady growth, cleaner balance sheets, and improving capital ratios.
We see FY26 as a bottoming year for NIMs, followed by renewed margin stability and credit acceleration.
Our preference remains towards high-quality private lenders such as HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Axis Bank.
These institutions combine scale with risk discipline, and could benefit significantly from:
- Improving FII flows as INR stability returns,
- Strength in retail and SME credit, and
- Potential valuation catch-up after a subdued FY25.
6. Deep Value — Select Contrarian Compounding
Even as we tilt towards growth, select deep-value names continue to play a role in our portfolios.
Here, we seek mispriced growth or optionality—companies with strong balance sheets, tangible catalysts, and asymmetric payoff profiles.
- Akums is emerging as one of India’s promising pharma CDMO platforms, combining steady contract visibility with potential scale expansion.
- Senco Gold stands to benefit from formalisation and brand consolidation in jewellery retail, alongside potential inventory gains in a high-gold-price environment.
- Modi Naturals represents a unique ethanol + FMCG dual engine story, with visible capacity expansion and optional long-term margin leverage.
- Globus Spirits is positioned to benefit from premiumisation in alco-bev, with growing presence in IMFL and stable bulk business underpinning cash generation.
This segment exemplifies our belief that diversified value exposure—anchored in cash flow visibility—remains a necessary complement to structural growth bets.
Outlook
Indian markets enter Samvat 2082 on a base of macro resilience, improving earnings visibility, and fading valuation excesses.
While global cycles will continue to influence short-term sentiment, the multi-decade case for Indian equities remains intact—supported by reforms, demographics, and corporate discipline.
At Adezi Ventures, our philosophy remains unchanged: focus on quality, discipline, and durability.
As we often remind ourselves—the best compounding story isn’t always out there; sometimes, it’s quietly unfolding within your own portfolio.
Disclosure:
We are long-term investors and hold positions in several of the companies mentioned. The views expressed are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Wishing everyone a Happy Diwali and a prosperous Samvat 2082 filled with health, happiness, and compounding.
